मंगलवार, 8 मार्च 2011

Why Libya is not Egypt or Tunisia

Suhasini Haidar
Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi waves to supporters as he arrives to speak in Tripoli, Libya, on March 2, 2011. Photo: AP
Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi waves to supporters as he arrives to speak in Tripoli, Libya, on March 2, 2011. Photo: AP
To put the country in the same basket of other ‘revolutions' would be a mistake.
It's a slap that echoed around the world — and without exaggeration, struck fear in the hearts of dozens of regimes across it. Every cliché from ‘forest fire' to ‘dominos' to a ‘house of cards' has been used in the past weeks to describe what's happened in West Asia ever since 24-year-old Mohammed Bouazizi was pushed around by a policewoman in Tunis. The slap was reportedly the final straw of humiliation for the vegetable seller, already weighed down by inflation and the responsibility of caring for his mother and six brothers and sisters. Bouazizi protested in the most horrific way imaginable, setting himself on fire. That fire grew unbelievably quickly and within a couple of weeks claimed Tunisian President Zinedine Ben Ali's position and forced him and his family out of the country. The pictures of hundreds of thousands swarming Tunis's main boulevard were dramatic, yet had this been the end of it, the world could have moved on.
Except within days, crowds were gathering at other capital city centres in the region, and then another — Tahrir Square in Cairo, the Pearl roundabout in Manama, the University main square in Sana'a, and on and on — until about 20 contiguous countries saw mass protests. After Ben Ali, it was Hosni Mubarak's turn to go, and the next may be Bahraini Prime Minister Shaikh Khalifa, or Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. In many places like Jordan the people were given assurances that the current rulers would not seek a re-election. Other regimes have tried to throw money at the problem. The Emir of Kuwait simply handed out bonuses of 1,000 dinars (about $3,000) transferred to every bank account, the Saudi Arabian King Abdullah injected $37 billion in pay rises and grants to students — many Gulf countries have raised oil and fuel subsidies, Tunisia promised 1,00,000 new jobs, while even Muammar Qadhafi offered to recharge mobiles with 100 Libyan Dinars each time someone sent an SMS out in praise of him.
To put Libya in the same basket of other ‘revolutions', though, would be a mistake. To begin with, each of the countries that are seeing demonstrations has more or less weathered them. Often, because the ‘real' power has been not the head of government, but someone else. In Iran it is the Mullahs; in Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait, it is the monarchy that holds the key. In Bahrain, it is the Crown Prince Salman bin-Hamad Al-Khalifa, who has been able to broker peace with the protesters who want the Prime Minister (the King's uncle) to go.
In Egypt, it is not the monarchy, but the military that fulfils that role. Many now say the Tahrir Square protests may have pushed Mubarak out, but the real break came some months earlier, after he rigged elections and proposed his son a successor, and the army felt he had broken his contract with it. That may explain why, in a move without any precedent worldwide, the Egyptian military put out a statement clearly supporting the ‘legitimate struggle of the people', and refused to open fire on the protesters. The ‘M' factor of the power behind the seat of power has in fact led to a strange scenario — where pro-democracy protesters are targeting their Prime Ministers and Presidents, but not their Army or royalty.
Libya's Qadhafi, and as a result, Qadhafi's Libya are different. Col. Qadhafi seized power in 1969 when, with the help of his own militia and the backing of other tribes, he deposed King Idris. In the decades that followed, he never disbanded his own militia that remains loyal personally to him. He also never allowed his army to be strengthened, spending more resources on building a strong intelligence network instead, that has kept a closer eye on revolt within the country than on an attack from outside. In addition, his sons command their own battalions, and his Al Qadhadfa tribesmen hold key positions in the government and the forces. Despite his comic utterances, Qadhafi's grip on his government is so tight that Indian officials dealing with getting clearances for evacuation flights from Libya, reported the sense that he was personally deciding every landing permit himself.
Also, unlike Egypt and Tunisia, Libya is less susceptible to pressure from the outside world. In his bestselling book, ‘The Prize,' Daniel Yergin calls oil Qadhafi's 'jackpot', detailing how the country's vast reserves of crude ensure that Qadhafi has had less to worry from the West cutting ties with him, than the West has to worry if he decides to shut off his pipelines to the Mediterranean. To add to that the IMF now estimates that the Central Bank of Libya has about $110 billion in international reserves, enough to cover at least three years of imports.
Meanwhile as talk of sanctions and a no-fly zone gain ground in the international community, it must also be remembered that before Qadhafi's rehabilitation in recent years, he spent decades as an international outcaste. After he was charged with ordering the bombing of two planes — one French and the other American — that left 400 dead in the 1980s, Libya fell under and withstood strict sanctions till 2002. Qadhafi's own home was bombed, a fact he won't let anyone forget, even as he stood to give one of defiant speeches last week from one of the shelled buildings still preserved from that era.
Qadhafi understands the symbolism of that and many other gestures that frighten both the West and his own people. His bombing of key oil-terminal towns and opening artillery fire on protesters are far more serious than the surreal scene in Cairo's Tahrir Square, when pro-Mubarak riders on camels and horses rode in to attack the crowds.
Clearly the revolt in Libya may have begun as a copycat effect of regional unrest, but its leader Qadhafi will have more to do with scripting how it ends — whether he digs in for a long and bloody civil war or in the chaos he will leave behind after.
(Suhasini Haidar is Deputy Foreign Editor, CNN-IBN. She is the only Indian journalist reporting from Tripoli.)

सोमवार, 7 मार्च 2011

No Intervention in Libya

The CPI(M) expresses its strong opposition to the moves for military intervention in Libya by the United States, Britain and the Nato. The United States has positioned its warships off the coast of Libya. There is talk of imposing a ‘no fly zone’ over Libya. Both the US and the British government leaders have talked about using all options to end the crisis in Libya.
 It is for the people of Libya to decide how to resolve their problems and what type of political system they require. The US and its allies have no right whatsoever to violate the sovereignty of Libya in the name of a humanitarian intervention. Just as in Iraq earlier, the western powers are interested mainly in the oil wealth of Libya and seek to utilize the revolt against the Gaddafi regime to pursue their own interests.
 The Government of India should unambiguously declare that no military intervention of any sort should be resorted to by the United States or Nato. Its whole concentration should be to ensure the evacuation of all Indian nationals from Libya.

बुधवार, 2 मार्च 2011

फ़ैज़ से मेरी मुलाक़ात

सूफ़ी गुलाम मुस्स्तफ़ा ‘तबस्सुमुम’
‘शामे शहरे यारां’ नामक फ़ैज़ के संग्रह की भूमिका में उनके कालेज के छात्रा जीवन की कुछ यादें
उनके शिक्षक तबस्सुम साहब ने दर्ज़ की हैं, ख़ासकर, परीक्षा के सभागार में सिगरेट पीने पर पाबंदी
के कारण बेचैनी और फिर इजाज़त मिल जाने पर कलम की चाल और सिगरेट की कश में
मुक़ाबले की दिलचस्प दास्तान। संन् 1931 था और अक्टूबर का महीना। मुझे सेंट्रल टेनिंग
कॉलेज से गर्वमेंट कॉलेज में आये हुए कोई तीन हफ़्ते गुज़रे थे। पिछले स्कूल में पढ़ने-पढ़ाने की
ख़ुश्क फ़ज़ा और अनुशासन की सख़्ती से तबीयत घुटी-घुटी सी थी। नये कॉलेज में आते ही
तबीयत में खुशी की एक लहर दौड़ गयी। शेरो-शायरी का शौक़ फिर से उभरा। चुनांचे
‘बज़्मे-सुख़न’ की ओर से एक बड़े मुशायरे की सदारत (अध्यक्षता) प्रो. पतरस बुख़ारी के सुपुर्द हुई।
शाम होते ही कॉलेज का हाल छात्रों से भर गया। स्टेज की एक तरफ़ ‘नियाजमंदाने-लाहौर’
अपनी पूरी शान से विराजमान थे। दूसरी ओर सामने लाहौर की तमाम साहित्यिक संस्थाओं के
नुमाइंदे क़तार में सजे बैठे थे। दोनों तरफ़ से सहृदयता और स्पर्धा के माहौल के बावजूद सारी
सभा एक-दूसरे का ख़ैर मक़दम (स्वागत) कर रही थी। रिबायती दस्तूर के मुताबिक अध्यक्ष ने
अपने कॉलेज के छात्रों से शेर पढ़ने का एलान किया। दो-एक छात्रा आये और बड़े अदब और
विनम्रता से कलाम पढ़कर चले गये। अचानक एक दुबला-पतला सा लड़का स्टेज पर प्रकट हुआ।
सियाह रंग, सादा लिबास, अंदाज़ में गंभीरता बल्कि रूखापन, चेहरे पर अजनबी होने का गहरा
एहसास। इधर-उधर कुछ फुसफुसाहट होने लगी। इतने में उसने कहा: अर्ज़ किया है। कलाम में
शुरुआती रियाज़ के बावजूद पुख़्तगी और शैली में सहजता थी। सब ने दाद दी। ये हफ़ीज़
होशियारपुरी थे।
फिर एक नौजवान आये, गोरे चिट्टे, चौड़ा माथा, चाल में शालीनता, आंखें और होंठ जैसे एक ही
समय में हल्की मुस्कान में डूबे हुए। शेर बड़े ढंग और सलीक़े से पढ़े। इशारे हुए, पतरस ने कुछ
मानीख़ेज नज़रों में लाहौर के ‘नियाज़मंदों’ से बातें कीं और उनकी हलकी ख़ामोशी को रज़ा
(सहमति) समझकर दोनों नौजवानों को दोबारा स्टेज पर बुलाया गया। नयी शायरी सुनी। फ़ैज़
साहब ने ग़ज़ल के अलावा एक नज़्म भी सुनायी। ग़ज़ल और नज़्म दोनों में सोच का अंदाज़ और
बयान का अछूता ढंग था। मुशायरा ख़त्म हुआ। तय पाया कि सभी दोस्त इन दोनों को साथ लेकर
ग़रीबख़ाने पर जमा हों।
रात काफ़ी गुज़र चुकी थी, उन्हें बोर्डिंग में पहुंचना था। बुख़ारी साहब ने उनकी ग़ैरहाज़िरी का
ज़िम्मा लिया और फिर घंटे भर के लिए शेरो-शायरी पर बातचीत होती रही। ये उनकी शायरी का
उस्तादों की हौसला अफ़ज़ाई का इम्तिहान था। दोनों कामयाब रहे।
अभी पूरा महीना भी नहीं गुज़रा था कि कॉलेज के इम्तिहान शुरू हुए। जिस दिन की मैं बात कर
रहा हूं उस दिन पतरस साहब कॉलेज हॉल में इम्तिहानात के कर्ताधर्ता थे और हम जैसे नये
तजर्बेकारों को छोटे कमरे सुपुर्द किये गये थे। मुझे कॉलेज की दूसरी मंज़िल में तैनात किया गया।
यहां एम.ए. इंग्लिश के छात्रा थे और उनमें फ़ैज़ अहमद फ़ैज़ भी थे। इम्तिहान का कमरा पाबंदी
वाली जगह होती है। उम्मीदवारों के दिमाग़ी इम्तिहान के साथ-साथ धैर्य और अनुशासन का भी
इम्तिहान होता है। सिगरेट पीना मना था। मैंने अपनी आदत को दबाने के लिए पान का इंतज़ाम
कर लिया था। मगर फ़ैज़ साहब कभी सवालात के पर्चे पर नज़र डालते और कभी मेरी तरफ़
हल्की मुस्कराती नज़रों से देखते और फिर क़लम को उठाकर सर को खु़जाते और कभी ख़ामोशी
से अपने पड़ोसियों का हालचाल लेते, कभी-कभी उनका बायां हाथ ऐसे हरकत करता जैसे किसी
नामालूम राय को टटोल रहे हैं। मैं सोच रहा था। इतने में वो उठे और हमसे पूछा हमें यहां
सिगरेट पीने की इजाज़त है? मैंने कहा, मैं अभी बताता हूं। इतने में पतरस दूसरे कमरों का
मुआयना करते-करते मेरे कमरे के बाहर आकर खड़े हो गये। मैं जब सम्मान में प्लेटफ़ार्म से
उतरकर दरवाज़े पर पहुंचा तो उन्होंने, पूछा: सब कुछ ठीक है? मैंने कहा, जी!
मैंने अर्ज़ किया: प्रोफेसर साहब (मैं उन्हें प्रोफेसर साहब कहा करता था) कुछ छात्रा सिगरेट पीना
चाहते हैं। इजाज़त है? पतरस ने मेरे कान में दबी आवाज़ में कहा: ‘जब तक प्रोफेसर जोधसिंह
इस कॉलेज के प्रिंसीपल नहीं बनते, उस वक्त तक पी सकते हैं।’ और फिर मुस्करा कर चले गये।
मैंने अंदर आते ही फ़ैज़ साहब की तरफ़ देखा और इशारों से सिगरेट पीने का एलान किया। फ़ैज़
साहब के हाथ में फ़ौरन एक सिगरेट प्रकट हुआ। जैसे क़लम ही से उभर आया हो। फिर क़लम
की चाल और सिगरेट के कश में मुक़ाबिला शुरू हुआ और इस कशमकश में सुगंधित धुएं के
ग़्ाुब्बारे पूरे कमरे में फैल गये। मैं उस्ताद (शिक्षक) था, अनुशासन की ज़ंजीरों में जकड़ा हुआ बैठा
रहा और क़िवामदार पान को छोड़कर इस ख़ुशबू से अपने सिगरेट पीने के शौक़ के सुकून में डूब
गया। क्या मालूम था कि धुएं के ये ग्ुब्बारे कॉलेज की चारदीवारी से दूर-दूर तक फ़ज़ा में फैल
जायेंगे और उनमें सिगरेट पीने वाले की सुगंधित सांसों की खुशबूएं भी लहरायेंगी और शेरो-शायरी
और अदब की दुनिया को अपने आग़ोश (गोद) में ले लेंगी।
उर्र्दू से अनुवाद: गोबिंदं प्रसाद

The Great Food Crisis Of 2011

Lester R. Brown
As the new year begins, the price of wheat is setting an all-time high in the United Kingdom. Food riots are spreading across Algeria. Russia is importing grain to sustain its cattle herds until spring grazing begins. India is wrestling with an 18-percent annual food inflation rate, sparking protests. China is looking abroad for potentially massive quantities of wheat and corn. The Mexican government is buying corn futures to avoid unmanageable tortilla price rises. And on January 5, the U.N. Food and Agricultural organization announced that its food price index for December hit an all-time high.
But whereas in years past, it's been weather that has caused a spike in commodities prices, now it's trends on both sides of the food supply/demand equation that are driving up prices. On the demand side, the culprits are population growth, rising affluence, and the use of grain to fuel cars. On the supply side: soil erosion, aquifer depletion, the loss of cropland to nonfarm uses, the diversion of irrigation water to cities, the plateauing of crop yields in agriculturally advanced countries, and—due to climate change —crop-withering heat waves and melting mountain glaciers and ice sheets. These climate-related trends seem destined to take a far greater toll in the future.
There's at least a glimmer of good news on the demand side: World population growth, which peaked at 2 percent per year around 1970, dropped below 1.2 percent per year in 2010. But because the world population has nearly doubled since 1970, we are still adding 80 million pe ople each year. Tonight, there will be 219,000 additional mouths to feed at the dinner table, and many of them will be greeted with empty plates. Another 219,000 will join us tomorrow night. At some point, this relentless growth begins to tax both the skills of farmers and the limits of the earth's land and water resources.
Beyond population growth, there are now some 3 billion people moving up the food chain, eating greater quantities of grain-intensive livestock and poultry products. The rise in meat, milk, and egg consumption in fast-growing developing countries has no precedent. Total meat consumption in China today is already nearly double that in the United States.
The third major source of demand growth is the use of crops to produce fuel for cars. In the United States, which harvested 416 million tons of grain in 2009, 119 million tons went to ethanol distilleries to produce fuel for cars. That's enough to feed 350 million people for a year. The massive U.S. investment in ethanol distilleries sets the stage for direct competition between cars and people for the world grain harvest. In Europe, where much of the auto fleet runs on diesel fuel, there is growing demand for plant-based diesel oil, principally from rapeseed and palm oil. This demand for oil-bearing crops is not only reducing the land available to produce food crops in Europe, it is also driving the clearing of rainforests in Indonesia and Malaysia for palm oil plantations.
The combined effect of these three growing demands is stunning: a doubling in the annual growth in world grain consumption from an average of 21 million tons per year in 1990-2005 to 41 million tons per year in 2005-2010. Most of this huge jump is attributable to the orgy of investment in ethanol distilleries in the United States in 2006-2008.
While the annual demand growth for grain was doubling, new constraints were emerging on the supply side, even as longstanding ones such as soil erosion intensified. An estimated one third of the world's cropland is losing topsoil faster than new soil is forming through natural processes—and thus is losing its inherent productivity. Two huge dust bowls are forming, one across northwest China, western Mongolia, and central Asia; the other in central Africa. Each of these dwarfs the U.S. dust bowl of the 1930s.
Satellite images show a steady flow of dust storms leaving these regions, each one typically carrying millions of tons of precious topsoil. In North China, some 24,000 rural villages have been abandoned or partly depopulated as grasslands have been destroyed by overgrazing and as croplands have been inundated by migrating sand dunes.
In countries with severe soil erosion, such as Mongolia and Lesotho, grain harvests are shrinking as erosion lowers yields and eventually leads to cropland abandonment. The result is spreading hunger and growing dependence on imports. Haiti and North Korea, two countries with severely eroded soils, are chronically dependent on food aid from abroad.
Meanwhile aquifer depletion is fast shrinking the amount of irrigated area in many parts of the world; this relatively recent phenomenon is driven by the large-scale use of mechanical pumps to exploit underground water. Today, half the world's people live in countries where water tables are falling as overpumping depletes aquifers. Once an aquifer is depleted, pumping is necessarily reduced to the rate of recharge unless it is a fossil (nonreplenishable) aquifer, in which case pumping ends altogether. But sooner or later, falling water tables translate into rising food prices.
Irrigated area is shrinking in the Middle East, notably in Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, and possibly Yemen. In Saudi Arabia, which was totally dependent on a now-depleted fossil aq uifer for its wheat self-sufficiency, production is in a freefall. From 2007 to 2010, Saudi wheat production fell by more than two thirds. By 2012, wheat production will likely end entirely, leaving the country totally dependent on imported grain.
The Arab Middle East is the first geographic region where spreading water shortages are shrinking the grain harvest. But the really big water deficits are in India, where the World Bank numbers indicate that 175 million people are being fed with grain that is produced by overpumping. In China, overpumping provides food for some 130 million people. In the United States, the world's other leading grain producer, irrigated area is shrinking in key agricultural states such as California and Texas.
The last decade has witnessed the emergence of yet another constraint on growth in global agricultural productivity: the shrinking backlog of untapped technologies. In some agriculturally advanced countries, farmers are using all available technologies to raise yields. In Japan, the first country to see a sustained rise in grain yield per acre, rice yields have been flat now for 14 years. Rice yields in South Korea and China are now approaching those in Japan. Assuming that farmers in these two countries will face the same constraints as those in Japan, more than a third of the world rice harvest will soon be produced in countries with little potential for further raising rice yields.
A similar situation is emerging with wheat yields in Europe. In France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, wheat yields are no longer rising at all. These three countries together account for roughly one-eighth of the world wheat harvest. Another trend slowing the growth in the world grain harvest is the conversion of cropland to nonfarm uses. Suburban sprawl, industrial construction, and the paving of land for roads, highways, and parking lots are claiming cropland in the Central Valley of California , the Nile River basin in Egypt, and in densely populated countries that are rapidly industrializing, such as China and India. In 2011, new car sales in China are projected to reach 20 million—a record for any country. The U.S. rule of thumb is that for every 5 million cars added to a country's fleet, roughly 1 million acres must be paved to accommodate them. And cropland is often the loser.
Fast-growing cities are also competing with farmers for irrigation water. In areas where all water is being spoken for, such as most countries in the Middle East, northern China, the southwestern United States, and most of India, diverting water to cities means less irrigation water available for food production. California has lost perhaps a million acres of irrigated land in recent years as farmers have sold huge amounts of water to the thirsty millions in Los Angeles and San Diego.
The rising temperature is also making it more difficult to expand the world grain harvest fast enough to keep up with the record pace of demand. Crop ecologists have their own rule of thumb: For each 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature above the optimum during the growing season, we can expect a 10 percent decline in grain yields. This temperature effect on yields was all too visible in western Russia during the summer of 2010 as the harvest was decimated when temperatures soared far above the norm.
Another emerging trend that threatens food security is the melting of mountain glaciers. This is of particular concern in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan plateau, where the ice melt from glaciers helps sustain not only the major rivers of Asia during the dry season, such as the Indus, Ganges, Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow rivers, but also the irrigation systems dependent on these rivers. Without this ice melt, the grain harvest would drop precipitously and prices would rise accordingly.
And finally, over the longer term, melting ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica, combined with thermal expansion of the oceans, threaten to raise the sea level by up to six feet during this century. Even a three-foot rise would inundate half of the riceland in Bangladesh. It would also put under water much of the Mekong Delta that produces half the rice in Vietnam, the world's number two rice exporter. Altogether there are some 19 other rice-growing river deltas in Asia where harvests would be substantially reduced by a rising sea level.
The current surge in world grain and soybean prices, and in food prices more broadly, is not a temporary phenomenon. We can no longer expect that things will soon return to normal, because in a world with a rapidly changing climate system there is no norm to return to.
The unrest of these past few weeks is just the beginning. It is no longer conflict between heavily armed superpowers, but rather spreading food shortages and rising food prices—and the political turmoil this would lead to—that threatens our global future. Unless governments quickly redefine security and shift expenditures from military uses to investing in climate change mitigation, water efficiency, soil conservation, and population stabilization, the world will in all likelihood be facing a future with both more climate instability and food price volatility. If business as usual continues, food prices will only trend upward.
Earth-policy.org

मंगलवार, 1 मार्च 2011

In Libya, an unlikely hero of a youth-led revolution

BENGHAZI, LIBYA – Mehdi Mohammed Zeyo was the most unlikely of revolutionary heroes. The bespectacled 49-year-old worked in the supplies department of the state-owned oil company. He was a diabetic with two teenage daughters.
But something snapped inside him as a youth-led uprising in Libya against the government of Moammar Gaddafi quickly turned bloody.
For days Zeyo had carried the bodies of teenage boys from outside a security base in the center of the city where Gaddafi’s militiamen fired on young protesters. Every day he went with hundreds of others to the cemeteries to bury the boys. His outrage grew, until Zeyo quietly made a decision, according to his family, friends and witnesses to his fiery death.On the morning of Feb. 20, he walked down the stairs of his apartment building with a gas canister hoisted on his shoulder, witnesses said. He put two canisters inside his trunk of his car, along with a tin can full of gunpowder. Driving toward the base, he flashed the victory sign to the young men protesting outside and hit the gas pedal.
Gaddafi’s security forces sprayed his black car with bullets, setting off a powerful explosion, witnesses said. The blast tore a hole in the base’s front gate, allowing scores of young protesters and soldiers who had defected to stream inside. That night, the opposition won the battle for the base, and for Benghazi, as Gaddafi’s forces retreated.
More than a week later, Benghazi remains the center of resistance to Gaddafi as Libya’s leader of 41 years clings to power in the capital, Tripoli. Here, Zeyo’s face has become the symbol of courage for this youth-led rebellion.

Globalisation: Impact on Indian Economy

Paper at Desh Bhagat Yadgar Committee Seminar

Sitaram Yechury
Globalisation has today become the buzzword.  It offers respectability to a nakedly aggressive design of imperialism which seeks to economically recolonise the developing third world.  Its admitted objective is to restructure the economies of the third world countries in such a manner  that they dovetail to imperialists' interests of garnering super profits.  In other words, the economies of these countries are to be so restructured that they, without  any restrictions, make themselves available for imperialism's plunder and loot.  This predatory character of imperialism, in the current phase, has become more aggressive, particularly since  the dismantling of socialism in the former USSR and Eastern Europe.  With no countervailing force now present, at the global scale, imperialism is seeking to impose its hegemony through such economic enslavement of the world.
Any attempt at a scientific inquiry of why such an offensive was mounted by imperialism in the last two decades of the 20th century and intensified today must consider both the objective conditions and developments resulting from development of world capitalism and the subjective desire of imperialism to strengthen its hegemony and exploitation in search of super profits.
One of the features of capitalist development is that while it grows, there  is a tendency towards centralisation and concentration of capital.  This is an inherent law of capitalist production and development. Over a period of time, there would be fewer and fewer capitalists but larger and larger ones. 
During the course of the  second half of the 20th century, after the Second World War, aided by tremendous advances in science and technology, capitalism developed enormously.  This was based on  intensifying the exploitation both within the capitalist countries and of the third world countries.  During the course of this half century,  tremendous concentration of capital took place.  It is this concentration of capital, both of financial and industrial capital, that today is seeking to reorder the world and redefine international legality in order to pursue its super profits without any obstacle or hindrance.  The internationalisation of finance capital seeks  to impose what is know as financial liberalisation, ie, creating circumstances for finance capital to have unhindered access to third world  countries in order to make speculative profits.  It is this centralisation of industrial capital that is seeking unrestricted access to the economic resources and the markets of the third world countries to reap super profits. 
At another level, imperialism today seeks to legally deprive third world countries of  their right to restrict the inflow of imports and regulate trade flows.  In other words,  independent third world countries are being forced to surrender their economic sovereignty in the interests of this international capital. 
Imperialism seeks to achieve this objective through its trimurti – IMF, World Bank and WTO.
Internationalisation of Finance Capital
A new feature of the present stage of the world capitalist development is the internationalisation of finance capital. Over $1.5 trillion ($1.5 lakh crores) today moves in and out of the world financial markets every day.  The global stock of principal derivatives (options, futures and swaps involving interest rates and currencies) was $6.9 trillion ($6.9 lakh crores) in 1991.  It was estimated roughly to be over $20 trillion (20 lakh crores) in 1993.  The global communication revolution since has led to a greater speed  of this growth in terms of volume, turnover and spread of financial transactions.
This enormous amount of capital creates no value and adds nothing, directly, to the wealth of nations.  But it has the potential to wreak havoc on the economies, particularly in the third world. It is this internationalisation of finance capital that is today assaulting the sovereignty of independent nations, seeking free and uninhibited access to their economies in pursuit of super profits that massive transnational banks and financial corporations seek to  derive.
It is, however, important to note that the present day finance capital is highly globally mobile sucking in finance capital from individual countries dominated by finance capital originating from the advanced countries. Further, this finance capital is more pre-occupied  in its search for quick speculative gains rather than its amalgamation with industrial capital leading to economic development. It, therefore, truly represents the parasite  that thrives  at the expense of real economic growth. In pursuit of quick and  super profits, this finance capital moves in and out of countries at amazing speed.  When it moves out of  a country (like in Mexico in 1994 and now in South East Asia in 1997-98) it bursts the bubble plunging the entire economy into a crisis.
Earlier in 1994, the IMF's General Assembly meeting at Madrid had proudly portrayed Mexico as a model for the third world.  A few weeks later, with the sudden withdrawal of speculative capital, Mexico declared that it could not pay its debt commitments, its  currency was devalued by more than 60 per cent and the country had to submit itself to strict and humiliating conditions and pay the  debtors by selling its oil fields at cheap prices.  This warning was  not taken seriously, on the contrary, imperialism deliberately went about forcing the third world countries to open their capital markets as the only solution against such crisis like Mexico.
The mechanics of the internationalisation of finance capital operate in such a manner that the third world countries having been inflicted by a  severe currency crisis and consequent declining export earnings are forced to service international capital by  liquidating  their productive economic assets. Even the World Bank Chief Economist Joseph Stiglitz, declared in Manila in 1998 that, "The crisis would not have taken place if there had not been  a liberalisation of capital operations in their economies."  In three years, from 1990-93, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) increased from $26.3 billion  (2630 crores) to $67 billion (6700 crores).  In contrast, Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) increased from $9.3 billion (930 crores) to $93 billion (9300 crores)!  The speed of its rise  continued in subsequent years.  The Malaysian premier has, as a result, banned any currency trading (prohibiting free conversion of the local currency Ringgit into dollars and other hard currencies) to prevent further damage. He has also introduced many measures making it difficult for foreign investors to speculate.  All these amount to virtual rolling back of the IMF prescription of liberalisation of capital markets.
Concentration of Industrial Capital
Simultaneously, we find massive concentration and centralisation of industrial capital as well.  A survey conducted by The Economist in 1993 estimated that the total worldwide assets of multinational  corporations amounted to roughly $ 20 trillion. This has subsequently grown phenomenon.  Similar is the situation as far as world trade grows. The bulk of international trade  is conducted by the multinational corporations who, with their monopoly power, are able to manipulate international prices creating havoc by the dumping  commodities in the third world.  This leads to the deindustrialisation in the  third world leading to consequent growth of unemployment, inequality and misery.
Thus, we find that the objective laws of development of capitalism brought the world to a situation where there has been a tremendous growth of concentration and centralisation of capital.  This, in turn,  is seeking to undermine the economic sovereignty of independent countries  and intensifying exploitation. 
The emergence of this international finance capital is an  important factor that explains the relatively low growth rates accompanied by high unemployment rates in the advanced countries.  This happens because in order to appease international speculators, there is a  competitive reduction in tax rates and restrictions on the size of the fiscal deficit. In other words, governments are forced to cut back expenditures and thereby deflate both employment and domestic demand leading to lower rates of growth.
This, in turn, leads to a situation where the advanced countries turn to the third world economies and intensify exploitation.  The imposition of neo-liberal policies serves this purpose of removing obstacles to the free operation of internationally mobile finance and industrial capital. In addition, it seeks to impose a new form of  international division of labour, this time not through direct colonial occupation but through coercing  third world economies to dove tail to imperialist interests.
Thus we find, true to Marx's analysis of capitalism, the rapid centralisation of capital at a global scale  is nakedly revealing its predatory and capricious nature. Marx in Capital (Vol.1) says, "With adequate profit, capital is very bold.  A certain 10 per cent will ensure its employment anywhere; 20 per cent certain will produce eagerness; 50 per cent positive audacity; 100 per cent will make it ready to trample on all  human laws; and  300 per cent and there is not a crime at which it will scruple, nor a risk it will not run, even to the chance of  its owner being hanged."
Disasterous Consequences
The effect of this on the world is all too evident for us to see today.  The intensification of exploitation is widening  inequalities in a sharp manner. 
This is starkly illustrated by the fact that the combined assets of the 358 billionaires in the world is greater than the combined annual income of countries constituting 45 per cent of the world's population of 2.3 billion (230 crore) people.  Further, the net wealth of 10 richest billionaires is one and a half  times more than the national income of all the least developed countries put together.  The share of the poorest 20 per cent of the world's population now stands at a miserable 1.1 per cent down  from 1.4 per cent in 1991 and 2.3 per cent in 1960.  The 1998 Human Development Report shows that the ratio of overall consumption of goods and services between the richest 20% and poorest 20% of the world's population is 16:1!
Parallelly, the capitalist development taking place in the advanced countries itself is based mainly on advances in science and technology which permit the constrained replacement of human beings by machines.  The net result is while  moderate growth is achieved, it is done without generating employment and, in effect, reducing its  future potential.  This can be judged by the following.
On an average, in all the developing countries, the unemployment level has reached figures  higher than 8 per cent of the labour force.  There are 120 million (12 crore) people officially registered as unemployed and over 700 million (70 crore) are under employed. In addition, 1.3 billion (130 crore) people live in absolute poverty on less than $1 a day while 3 billion (300 crore) people live on less than $2 a day. The worst  affected is the youth. In the OECD (28 developed countries), youth unemployment grew from 11.6 per cent in 1990 on the average to 13.4 per cent in 1997. In some countries like Spain, youth  unemployment is a staggering 39 per cent while  in France it is 28.1 per cent. In countries like France, Germany, Italy, the overall unemployment percentage is in double digits.
Succumbing to Imperialist Pressures
This being the nature and character of the current phase of globalisation and liberalisation, why is it that the Indian ruling classes, instead of defending our economic sovereignty and the interests of the country, are succumbing  to such imperialist pressures?  The answer to this question lies in understanding the specific nature of capitalist development undertaken by the Indian capitalist class after independence.  Due to specific circumstances of seeking to prevent the popular people's struggle for independence from assuming a revolutionary  character, the Indian bourgeoisie sought an alliance with landlordism. The massive struggles of the peasantry – Tebhaga in Bengal, Surma Valley in Assam, Worli in  Maharashtra, Anti-Betterment Levy  in Punjab etc, crowned by the glorious Telangana armed struggle – sent warning  signals to the bourgeoisie. In order to retain and consolidate their status as the ruling classes, they needed an alliance with the landlords.  At the same time,  the Indian bourgeoisie, seeking to develop capitalism in India as a part of the world capitalist system, needed to collaborate with foreign finance capital.  Thus, the trajectory of capitalist development chosen by the Indian bourgeoisie  was one which collaborated with imperialism on the one hand, and allied with semi-feudal landlordism, on the other.
This had serious implications  for the nature of economic development in the country.  Collaboration with landlordism meant keeping the vast mass of Indian people subject to feudal and semi-feudal exploitation.  This, in turn, meant that more than 70 per cent of the population did not constitute a market that  is required for capitalist development since they did not have the purchasing power to buy the commodities  produced by the capitalist system.  The domestic market, hence, remain restricted imposing severe constraints on capitalist development.
The bourgeoisie initially sought to overcome this bottleneck by using the State power at its command to mobilise resources from the people and establish the public sector  to create the necessary  infrastructure for capitalist development. By using the State to  protect itself from foreign capital in the initial stage and by intensifying the exploitation of the people, the bourgeoisie benefitted immensely.  The assets of the top 22 monopoly houses shot up from Rs. 312. 63 crores in 1957 to Rs. 1,58,004.72 crores  in 1997 – an increase by 500 times!
Today, the same bourgeoisie is seeking privatisation of the public sector because it has amassed this much capital. It is seeking to appropriate people's assets for its private profit.  Since it cannot explain such banditry publicly, it takes recourse to a mal propaganda of denigrating the public sector.  The public sector was established for the bourgeoisie's benefit in the initial phase and the cries for its  privatisation are again being made for the benefit of the bourgeoisie.
However, to sustain a rapid pace of capitalist development was not possible unless the domestic market expanded rapidly.  This required that land reforms be implemented in right earnest and purchasing power be given  as a result to the  vast mass of Indian people. But implementation of land reforms  would go against the interests of the bourgeois ruling class partner – the landlords.  The bourgeoisie cannot afford this as this would upset its ruling class coalition. Hence, it had to seek  other alternatives.
There are two alternative courses available to the bourgeoisie. One is to sell its products  in the export markets.  The other is to produce those type of commodities that the rich in India could consume, ie, luxury consumption goods.   In the export market, India would have to compete with the technologically advanced countries like Japan, South Korea etc.  In order to produce luxury consumption goods such as  modern electronic gadgets etc, the Indian bourgeoisie requires  technology far advanced than what it possessed.  Therefore, in order to make use of the alternative courses, the Indian bourgeoisie and its leader the big bourgeoisie required to acquire modern technology.
Such technology was available but at a price.  And, this had to be paid for in foreign exchange.  India's exports were never higher than its imports.  Meaning that foreign exchange to buy this modern technology was just not there.  This, therefore, had to be borrowed.  Thus, the Indian big bourgeoisie goes to the IMF to borrow foreign exchange through which it seeks to acquire modern technology and produce such commodities from which it can enhance its profit through the export market and by catering to the luxury consumption of the rich  in the country.  The Indian bourgeoisie, therefore, goes in for the IMF loans by mortgaging the country.
The IMF, like in smart moneylender, looks not at the capacity of the borrower to return the principal amount but looks at the capacity of the borrower  to pay the interest on this loan.  If the  borrower does not have the capacity, the IMF imposes conditions to make the borrower acquire the capacity to pay the interest and the principal.
Thus, the first conditionality of the IMF is the reduction of the fiscal deficit.  The fiscal deficit is the  difference between the government's overall expenditure and its revenue.  Reducing fiscal deficit  means reducing government expenditure.   Thereby giving the government the capacity to pay the interest.  Thus, the constant concern of the Indian government to reduce fiscal deficit is because of such an IMF conditionality.
A reduction in government expenditure means a reduction of subsidies and whatever little that the government is spending for the welfare of the people.  Such reduction, therefore, means directly  a reduction in government's spending in areas such as food security, health, education etc. This directly affects adversely the lives of millions of our people.
Thus, what we see is a situation when the Indian ruling classes in pursuit of greater profits are mortgaging the country on the one hand, and imposing the burdens  of taking loans on the common people.  If this needs any proof, consider the following.  In the latest budget presented to the Parliament, the country was informed that this year, we have to pay interest charges of more than Rs. 1 lakh crores. 
According to the report of the Comptroller and Auditor General  of India for the year ending March 1999, the total  liability of the Central government increased by 61 per cent during the last five years.  It stands today at Rs. 10,12,486 crores. This is 57.44 per cent of the GDP  "The pressure of repayment of the principal and payment of interest on the external debt has already turned  the net inflow negative since 1994-95".  Thus, today,  India is returning more resources abroad than what we are borrowing.
Parallel with this, the conditions of the people have vastly deteriorated. Notwithstanding the disputes on the veracity of  statistics, there is no doubt,  from all statistical sources, that the number of people below the poverty line has increased  in absolute numbers.  The freeze on the recruitment, the privatisation of the public sector, the closure of nearly four lakh factories in the private sector  have  all contributed to swelling the ranks of the unemployed.  Starvation deaths and suicides by farmers are becoming a regular feature.
Adverse Impact on our Economy
As a result of this, we find that  the Indian ruling classes led by the big bourgeoisie are  embracing the policies of liberalisation and opening up our country to the predatory loot of foreign capital.  Foreign capital has been given unhindered access to virtually every sphere of our economy.  There are no restrictions, including the one that prevailed in the country for long time that a part of profits earned by foreign capital  must be reinvested  in the country. Foreign capital can now take over domestic Indian industries, loot India's rich economic resources and exploit India's cheap labour. The super profits that it makes, it can safely take back to its own country.
On the other hand, this Vajpayee government, while accelerating the pace of facilitating the loot of  India, has succumbed to US pressures and lifted quantitative restrictions three years in advance of our commitment to the WTO.  Quantitative restrictions are restrictions imposed by a country on the import of certain commodities. In India, there was a prohibition to import many agricultural commodities since this would adversely affect the lives of millions of people  involved in the domestic production of these commodities.  In April this year, the Vajpayee government clandestinely agreed with the US to lift such restrictions. 
As a result, many items have already begun to enter India creating devastating effects for our farmers.  As a result of such agricultural imports, the price of green tea has crashed from Rs. 18to Rs. 3, of rubber from Rs. 70 to Rs. 28, of coffee from Rs. 72 to Rs. 32, of coconut from Rs. 7 to Rs. 3 etc.  Millions of farmers involved in the production of such commodities today face starvation.  In North India, sugarcane is being burnt in the fields and sugar mills are closed  because imported sugar is coming at a cheaper price.  The suicides of farmers in many parts of the country reflects the gravity of the situation. 
This, however, does not mean that the people are benefitting from such a crash in prices.  It is the trader who is benefitting and the Vajpayee government has now  permitted  foreign companies to engage in our domestic trade!
Grim Future
Putting all these together, we find a grim future for India.  The IMF conditionalities and the borrowings has resulted in a situation where the country has to borrow to  pay the interests on the earlier borrowing.  The country is not only mortgaged but we are today truly  in a debt trap.
The access given to foreign capital is undermining the economic sovereignty and permitting unbridled loot of Indian resources.  The privatisation drive is handing over people's assets to foreign and domestic private capital while at the same time throwing millions of workers out of job.  Unemployment is, thus, galloping.  The conditions of the people are worsening as noted above.  This is the disastrous impact  that these  policies are having on our economy and the people. 
But then a legitimate  question arises – why   is the Indian bourgeoisie permitting foreign capital to loot India and thereby deprive the Indian bourgeoisie itself of its assets and profits?  As noted above, the Indian bourgeoisie, faced with a crisis of its own making because of its alliance with landlordism, had no option but to adopt such a course.  It does so at the expense of the country and the people. While the takeover of Indian capital by foreign capital will effect many non big capitalists, the  leader of the ruling class alliance – the big bourgeoisie – seeks to emerge as a junior partner of imperialism in this drive for globalisation.   For this, the big bourgeoisie is prepared to mortgage the country and heaping inhuman miseries on the people. 
Is there an alternative?  Of course, there is.  A people's alternative.  As we have noted earlier, the genesis of the crisis which led the big bourgeoisie to adopt this course of liberalisation lies in the narrow and restricted domestic market.  If the  domestic market can be expanded by land reforms, then this in itself will create sufficient demand for industrialisation without taking recourse to foreign capital.  To understand this, consider  the following.  Some economists estimated  some years ago that if enough money is given to people below the poverty line to buy one saree or a dhoti, then to meet the consignment  demand for cotton textiles, India would require three times the number of textile mills than what we have now!  On the contrary, more than four-fifths of the textile mills are closed today.  They are closed today not because people do not need the cloth that they produce.  They are closed because people  who need the cloth do not have purchasing power.
The present ruling classes, however, cannot adopt such a course since, as noted, they cannot go against the landlords and implement land reforms.  It is only the people's  struggles, the unity of all patriotic  Indians in defence of our economic sovereignty that must oust the present ruling classes to protect India and its people.

Union Budget 2011-12

The Union Budget 2011-12 fails to address the serious problems affecting the people and the economy. The Budget comes at a time when people are suffering due to high inflation and relentless rise of food and fuel prices. In this backdrop, the massive Rs. 20000 crore cut in major subsidies for 2011-12 on fuel, fertiliser and food, from what was spent in 2010-11 (Revised Estimates), come as a rude shock. The cut in food subsidy by Rs. 27 crore clearly exposes the Government's lack of willingness to enact a meaningful food security legislation. The Finance Minister's stubborn refusal to reduce excise and customs duties on petro products and obduracy in moving away from the ad-valorem duty structure, coupled with the cut on fuel subsidy by Rs. 15000 crore, indicates massive increase in fuel prices in the days to come. This exposes the anti-people character of the Government.
The direct cash transfer programme announced for implementation from next year is a smokescreen for this subsidy cut. The current BPL lists exclude large sections of the country's poor. Direct cash transfers to a small section of beneficiaries cannot substitute for the subsidised provision of essential commodities like food and fuel. The rise in kerosene prices will immediately affect the poor.
The Budget has provided relief of Rs. 11500 crore in direct taxes, while proposing to mobilise an additional Rs. 11300 crore through indirect taxes, which will inevitably be passed on to the consumers. This is a regressive taxation regime, which enriches the rich while burdening the ordinary citizens. As per the Statement of Revenue Foregone, total tax concessions reached over Rs. 5 lakh crore in 2010-11, with corporate tax exemptions totalling over Rs. 88000 crore. The tax-GDP ratio, which had reached almost 12% in 2007-08, has declined since then to around 10% in the current Budget. At a time when income inequalities are rising fast, a decline in tax GDP ratio shows the waning commitment towards redistributive policies and a throwback to trickle down economics.
No concrete steps to unearth the huge sums of black money stashed in offshore tax havens were announced. The DTAA (Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement) with Mauritius, through which 42% of FDI inflows into India is routed, is the biggest conduit of tax evasion by MNCs and Indian corporates. Rather than plugging such channels, the Finance Minister is signing more tax avoidance treaties with other countries. 
With resource mobilisation taking a back seat, Plan Expenditure as percentage of GDP in 2011-12 will decrease from what was spent last year. The Budget Support for the Central Plan in 2011-12 has increased by only 12% over 2010-11, while nominal GDP has increased by 14%. Such squeeze in real expenditure marks all the major developmental heads. The flagship schemes of the social sector have been neglected in the budget and social sector spending is slated to fall in real per capita terms. The allocation for NREGS has fallen by Rs. 100 crore, despite a claimed increase in the wages. The provisions for ICDS are far below the estimates for full universalization as directed by the Supreme Court.
Agricultural growth has been below 3% on average in the first four years of the Eleventh Five Year Plan, despite a target of 4%. It is shocking in this backdrop that the budget provision for the Agriculture Department has been cut from last year. The allocations for the welfare of women, minorities, dalits and tribals are thoroughly inadequate. Capital expenditure is projected to fall from 1.7 per cent of GDP to only 1.2 per cent, which will affect basic infrastructure for the people.
The announcement of impending legislations directed at liberalizing the sensitive financial sectors like insurance, banking and pension funds is meant to appease foreign finance capital. Further liberalization of rules for Indian Mutual Funds accessing foreign investors would also facilitate the flow of speculative finance into the economy. Greater inflows of such speculative finance at a time when India's current account deficit is widening, does not augur well for the health of India's economy.
Overall, the Budget reflects the abandoning of the aam admi agenda by the UPA-II Government and its pursuit of an aggressive neoliberal agenda. The Polit Bureau of the CPI (M) calls upon the people to strengthen resistance against these neoliberal policies.